ESTIMATION OF THE VALUE OF THE ENTERPRISE IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY
Abstract
The article deals with the essence of the concept of uncertainty, its types and types. Factors determining the uncertainty of the external environment of the enterprise are studied. It is shown that uncertainty is characterized by such concepts as unpredictability, randomness, ambiguity, vagueness. There are uncertainties, the precondition of which is intentional or unintentional distortion of information by the individual; institutional; technological; organizational. Mechanism of the influence of uncertainty on determining the value of an enterprise is defined. To assess the accuracy of the result of the assessment of the market value of the enterprise, the authors proposed to perform an analysis of uncertainty using qualitative and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis of uncertainty in assessing market value is to identify factors that affect the results of the study, assess these factors from the standpoint of the probability of occurrence and the degree of impact on the final result and their ranking. An explanation of the causes and sources of uncertainty is also a mandatory element of qualitative analysis. Quantitative analysis should include a numerical estimate of the uncertainty. It can be done by calculating the uncertainty interval or by statistical analysis methods. Quantitative analysis is the calculation of standard deviations, approximation errors and uncertainty intervals based on estimated cost values. It is concluded that the uncertainty is a decisive factor in determining the value of an enterprise (business). The greater the degree of uncertainty in the external environment in which the enterprise operates, than its market value will be the less. The quantitative mechanism of influence of uncertainty on the market value is carried out through capitalization ratio. The results of the qualitative analysis have revealed that the uncertainty in estimating the market value of Ukrainian enterprises is largely due on the one hand, factors of insufficient quality of source data, such as incomplete market data, underdeveloped Ukrainian stock market, and on the other hand econometric, the most significant of which there is modeling on sample sets.
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