ASSESSMENT OF THE MUTUAL INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AND SUPPLY CHAINS IN THE CONTEXT OF WAR

Abstract

The article analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of the national economy: gross domestic product (GDP) in nominal and real terms, GDP per capita, and consumer price index. Their dynamics in the period before and during the full-scale war is studied. It is noted that the gaps in the volumes of real and nominal gross product are explained by the presence of a significant percentage of the shadow economy and inflationary processes in Ukraine. The shadow economy makes it impossible to accurately estimate real GDP, as it does not take into account the informal economy and goods and services that do not pass through supply chains. The paper identifies aspects of the interaction between macroeconomic factors and supply chains. Particular attention is paid to the cause-and-effect relationship between inflationary processes and supply chains. In particular, the following are considered: shocks to the economy due to the lockdown caused by the Covid19 pandemic; full-scale Russian invasion; destruction and relocation of production facilities; disruption of logistics and supply chains; growth in production costs of business entities; migration processes. The article analyzes the dynamics of the consumer price index in Ukraine and European countries in recent years. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has created a number of new global economic challenges. This has increased costs in the supply chain and affected the supply of goods and, consequently, their prices. Consumer price indices in European countries have risen to their highest levels in recent years. The main ways to optimize the movement of material flows in supply chains in the context of the war in Ukraine at the national and global levels are considered. At the global level, logistics restructuring based on supply chain management concepts has been introduced, humanitarian cargoes have been transported without carriers having to cross borders, logistics centers have been organized for efficient transportation management, and nishoring, onshoring, and friendshoring have been implemented. At the national level, the company has established cooperation with state authorities to find optimal solutions for cargo transportation, and companies use dual-sourcing approaches with the use of digital logistics tools, development of new logistics routes.