FISCAL POLICY IN RAW MATERIALS ECONOMICS: THE ROLE OF THE BUDGET AND THE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS
Abstract
The peculiarities of fiscal policy of the countries exporting raw materials have been researched, and the «best practices» of anti-cyclical regulation based on the rule of fiscal policy have been analyzed, in particular. Using the OLS method for the unbalanced spatial-temporal sample of 15 annual data from Latin America, Southeast Asia and the former Soviet Union countries (plus Turkey and South Africa), the impact of budget balances (taking into account the time trend) on GDP growth rates (%), inflation (%), nominal and real interest rates (%), investments (% of GDP), savings (% of GDP), current account balances (% of GDP), as well as the share of high-tech exports in the total volume of export of industrial products (%) has been empirically estimated. Individual characteristics of peculiar countries have been taken into account using the appropriate fictitious variables. The constructivism of countercyclical fiscal policy as a factor in lowering the interest rate, increasing savings and improving the current account balance, which should facilitate stabilization policy in the commodity-oriented economy, has been confirmed. It has been noted, that the creation of sovereign wealth funds is a prerequisite for the implementation of the fiscal policy rules. It has been established, that the efficiency of government expenditures as a factor of long-term economic growth depends on the institutional factors quality.
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