PROTECTIONISM AND REDUCTION OF GLOBALIZATION: A TEMPORARY PHENOMENON OR LONG-TERM TREND?
Abstract
The impact of cyclical, structural, institutional and innovative factors on globalization
has been investigated in order to predict the dynamics of globalization processes. This article continues a series of publications by the author on the problems of modern
economic policy and strengthening protectionism in the modern context of
globalization, which was launched in the previous issue of «Economiс Scope» [15]. The
article is devoted to the study of the impact of cyclical, structural, institutional and
innovative factors on globalization in order to forecast the dynamics of globalization
processes. During the Global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, the
synchronization of these factors took place in the direction opposite to the vector of
globalization. In order to forecast the trends of the globalization dynamics, the
dependence between the level of globalization and innovative development of the
countries was investigated. Using econometric modeling, a tendency towards
globalization has been slowed down, and a forecast has been made to reduce
globalization by introducing protectionist measures as the countries' innovation capacity
increases. It is shown that such a forecast relates to the most innovative countries with
more self-sufficiency. However, it is likely that the pace of globalization for these
countries is accelerating with the transition to the next "big cycle". Within the
framework of higher technological processes, factors are created which can provide
globalization development on a qualitatively new basis. At the same time, for less
innovative countries, there is an opportunity to simultaneously increase the indicators
of innovation and the level of globalization. Therefore, countries that are currently
developing their innovative potential will soon be engines of globalization processes.
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